Piedmontese Businesses Optimistic for 2026 Despite Export Concerns

Piedmontese businesses are entering 2026 with a general sense of confidence, although different sectors and territories are experiencing varying degrees of progress. Turin is leading the way, demonstrating stronger indicators than the regional average, especially in production, orders, and employment. However, unresolved export issues continue to be a challenge due to international uncertainty.

Key Findings from the Survey

The findings come from a survey conducted in December by the Centro Studi dell’Unione Industriali Torino, which included approximately 1,200 manufacturing and service companies within the Piedmontese Confindustrial system.

Regionally, companies are approaching the first quarter of 2026 with positive expectations for employment and production, and internal orders are also improving. However, profitability and, in particular, exports remain fragile, continuing to record negative balances.

The aggregated data reveals a structural divide that has persisted for over two years. On one side, the manufacturing sector is still struggling, while on the other, the service sector continues to expand, benefiting from less exposure to foreign market tensions.

Turin's Stronger Confidence

In Turin, the level of confidence is more robust compared to the rest of the region. Expectations for the first quarter of 2026 indicate significant production growth, stronger orders, and improved employment. Unlike the regional data, Turin's manufacturing sector also shows positive expectations, with a production balance returning to positive territory after several difficult months. The propensity to invest is also improving, with nearly a quarter of companies planning significant expenditures on new plants.

The Export Challenge

However, exports remain a weak point. In Turin, expectations for foreign sales remain negative, confirming a trend that has lasted for over ten quarters.

Investment Plans on the Rise

The most encouraging sign is the willingness to invest. In Piedmont, over three out of four companies report spending programs, with an increased share allocated to new plants. Turin shows a similar dynamic, with a growing propensity to invest despite an unstable environment.

Cassa Integrazione and Plant Utilization

The use of cassa integrazione (temporary layoff scheme) remains limited and concentrated mainly in manufacturing, while the plant utilization rate remains consistent with the historical average, indicating well-utilized production capacity.

Manufacturing Sector Struggles

Piedmont's manufacturing sector continues to show signs of weakness. Production, new orders, profitability, and exports remain negative overall, with particularly acute issues in metalworking, especially automotive and metallurgy, and in textiles and clothing.

Service Sector Expansion

In contrast, the service sector continues its expansionary phase, which began after Covid. Expectations are positive across all sectors, with very high peaks for commerce and tourism, business services, ICT, and transport. This trend is favored by stronger domestic demand and less dependence on international dynamics.

Geopolitical Impact on Exports

The geopolitical context and trade tensions continue to weigh on exports. The survey shows a clear correlation: the more export-oriented a company is, the worse the expectations for production become.

Companies less exposed to foreign markets express much more optimistic views, while companies with a high export share remain cautious, especially in relation to major European partners.

Cautious Optimism and Necessary Choices

According to Marco Gay, president of the Unione Industriali Torino, the data indicates “cautious optimism” but requires rapid and coherent choices. “Even in a context that remains highly uncertain, the indications we receive from companies in the economic analysis for the start of 2026 lead to cautious optimism. The first indications at the European level on the automotive sector are certainly a first sign that goes in the direction we have always hoped for, especially with regard to technological neutrality. Similarly, the rules supporting corporate investments included by the Government in the Budget should be welcomed, which must now be confirmed and see speed of implementation in the implementing decrees,” explains the president.

Crucial Year for Pnrr and Industrial Supply Chains

2026 will be a crucial year because it is “the last of the Pnrr, and fears related to exports now concern mainly our European partners and will probably have an impact on the industrial supply chains where we are protagonists. That's why more than ever, constant attention and acceleration are needed on the dossiers that are still pending, from the cost of energy to infrastructure, from training to the use of Artificial Intelligence, from the cost of labor to the size of our companies, putting industrial intelligence and investments at the center.”

Confidence and Investment in Piedmont

“Piedmontese companies are approaching 2026,” comments Andrea Amalberto, president of Confindustria Piemonte, “confirming their willingness to invest to grow and develop their businesses. It is not a gamble but a real great gesture of confidence that must be seized and valued by all those who make up our economic fabric. What awaits us will be another very challenging year, just like 2025, which after many, perhaps too many, fears, has instead recorded a more sustained trend than expected in recent months. A result obtained thanks to the ability of our companies to adapt quickly to the market, both in terms of commercial outlets and the offer of products, processes, and technology. Those who look to Piedmont know that they can find efficient and advanced answers in this territory, a quality that Italian and foreign partners recognize in a transversal way across sectors and supply chains.”

Key Economic Indicators for Piedmont

Here's a summary of key economic indicators for Piedmont based on the survey findings:

Sector Performance: Manufacturing vs. Services

A significant divergence exists between the manufacturing and service sectors in Piedmont.

Turin's Economic Expectations

Turin's economic outlook for the first quarter of 2026 is generally positive.

Investment Trends in Piedmont

Companies in Piedmont are showing a strong inclination to invest in their businesses.

Challenges in the Manufacturing Sector

Specific Industries Facing Difficulties

Several industries within the manufacturing sector are experiencing significant challenges:

• Metalworking, especially automotive and metallurgy
• Textiles and clothing

Opportunities in the Service Sector

Sectors with Positive Expectations

The service sector is experiencing positive trends across various segments:

• Commerce and tourism
• Business services
• ICT (Information and Communication Technology)
• Transport

Impact of Exports on Production Expectations

The survey highlights a clear relationship between export orientation and production expectations.

The survey underlines the nuanced economic landscape of Piedmont as it heads into 2026. While Turin displays robust confidence and investment intentions, the region as a whole must address export challenges and sectoral disparities to ensure sustained growth.

Regional Employment and Production Forecasts

Anticipated Growth Sectors

Several sectors are predicted to experience growth in the coming year:

• Employment: Positive outlook
• Production: Positive expectations